03/10/2008 14:06 - (SA)
Mbeki and the ANC split dilemma
By Mathatha Tsedu
POLOKWANE, the little dorpie in Limpopo, has become a household name in political circles after the watershed conference of the African National Congress was held near there last year.
It was at that conference that the fate of Thabo Mbeki, who presided over both the organisation and the state, was sealed. Since then Polokwane represents different things to the two antagonistic groups within the ANC.
For the one group, it represents the moment of triumph, when democracy was restored and a man who thought he could just dictate to the ANC was shown the door. The will of the people determined policy, they feel.
To the other, Polokwane represents the tipping point when the "walking wounded", who for reasons ranging from corruption to insolence had found themselves at the mercy of either Mbeki or state institutions, had coalesced and grabbed the organisation.
The first group surrounds ANC president Jacob Zuma, while the second is with Mbeki.
The enmity between the two has increased since Polokwane, instead of lessening. This has been fueled in part by a desire by the new leadership to assert its authority over state organs, palpably in preparation for the transition next year. The arrogant manner in which this assertion of authority has been exercised, in particular towards Mbeki but not limited to him, has also fueled the antagonism.
The recall of premiers in Eastern and Western Cape, the virtually intolerable situation of Limpopo premier Sello Moloto who is insulted daily and told he should go, and Beatrice Marshoff and her tenuous hold on to power as Ace Magashule now demands his due, are cases in point.
This, coupled with how ANCYL leader Julius Malema was given leeway by the leadership to do a weekly and daily preview of how Mbeki was to go, fueled the perception that if you had been with Mbeki pre-Polokwane, you had not only lost the battle there, but even some of your rights as a member of the ANC.
The result was a dramatic week in which Mbhazima Shilowa, Gauteng premier, announced he was stepping down because decisions being taken by the ANC leadership were, at least for him, indefensible.
Then came former ANC chairperson Mosiuoa Lekota, who said he could not recognise the organisation that still calls itself the ANC. "For some time now", Lekota wrote to ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe in a pointedly open letter, "I have lived with the growing sense that our leadership has veered the organisation away from the established policy priorities and customary democratic norms of the ANC".
Lekota said those who expressed a different view to the Zuma group within the ANC were "hounded out and purged from organisation and state structures. This is contrary to the ANC?s democratic culture".
And then came the crunch rider at the end of the letter: "This state of affairs leaves me and many other comrades, no doubt, with a clear sense that our membership to the organisation is an endorsement of practices that are dangerous to the democracy that many people in our country struggled to bring into being."
This, said ANC head of policy Jeff Radebe in response, was Lekota "giving notice to leave the ANC". And it is this that is at the centre of this debate. Is there a group within the ANC that intends to move out? Is Lekota indeed part of it and therefore giving notice?
In both Radebe and Mantashe?s response when interviewed on radio, Lekota was reminded of the fortunes that befell all other groups that have chosen the path they see him at best contemplating, or at worst already treading. Thus the Pan Africanist Congress breakaway in 1959 and its fate, a Group of Eight which tried to split from the ANC in exile and Bantu Holomisa a few years ago were cited.
For the group that sees Polokwane as the hijack of the ANC by forces of doom, the key question for them is what to do.
There are at least two options: stay in the ANC, tolerate the insults, allow the new leaders to go into government and get busy there, while you go back to branches and mobilise to take back the ANC in 2012.
The second option is to accept, as Lekota seems to suggest, that the situation has become untenable and that this may be the time to ship out.
If the split happens, Lekota and/or whoever would lead it, would be hoping that Mbeki supporters in Polokwane would be the base from which to grow. Mbeki garnered 40% of the delegates? votes in Polokwane. But it is not that easy. Determining how many of them are sufficiently angry to want to hive off from the ANC would be important. Also, some would have started cohabiting with the new power to ensure personal interests. So for those intent on forming a new party there are too many unknowns.
While the treatment meted out to Mbeki has angered many people ? not only within the ANC but even amongst non-members who vote for the party ? how many of them would come along? Doesn?t the name ANC still carry too much allure for people to consciously divorce themselves from it?
Could this be the move into the wilderness that Mantashe and Radebe say awaits anyone who moves out? Where would they get the resources from to build a national machinery that could go into elections within months and pit itself against the juggernaut that is the ANC?
The BEE league that has been seen as solidly behind Mbeki can and may easily switch allegiances to ensure continued largesse from state tenders.
And, perhaps most importantly, what would Mbeki?s own position be in this? Does he feel like Lekota? Is he supportive of this move? Mbeki and Lekota have not always been friends, but is the new reality perhaps a moment to forget little differences and focus on the big picture?
Whatever Mbeki?s position is, it must be agonising. Having given his life to a struggle led by this organisation, being a part of it and leading it for 10 years, it treated him in the most humiliating of ways. Does he hold out for the possibility of 2012 or does he go in with the group that wants out now?
How important is his view and support in this?
Political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi says Mbeki finds himself in a conflictual situation where he would feel the ANC had been hijacked and would therefore feel a split is justified. At the same time however, "for Mbeki the ANC is not just a political party or liberation movement, it was and still is his home and his life. The ANC for Mbeki still has significance, and while intellectually he may feel alienated from it and its leadership right now, emotionally he would find it too difficult to detach.
"For him the ANC goes beyond politics and is therefore very difficult to break away from. He is a man in deep pain, feeling betrayed and would feel the split is justified but still feel such a split would be surrendering the ANC to these people."
Matshiqi feels if Lekota was to lead a split, strategically they may want to either keep Mbeki out because "politically he is damaged goods", while at the same time they would want the sympathy factor that comes with him presently being seen as a victim of a vicious and embarrassing behaviour by the new ANC leaders.
"Strategically they need to put him away. He was damaged by lapses in political judgements and decisions within the ANC. That he failed to see he would lose in Polokwane and then failing to step down from the state soon thereafter leading to his recall would mean the new party is taking this baggage along.
"The victim status over his recall cannot last forever. As a result as a new party, even if he may want to be part of it, which I think highly unlikely, you don?t want him, unless the split and new party are happening in the sole belief that he would be part of it," Matshiqi added.
He said beyond this, however, the new party faces the dilemma of its own persona and how they position themselves. "From all the debates between Terror (Lekota) and both Gwede (Mantashe) and Jeff (Radebe) their point of reference is the ANC. They want to claim to the true and authentic ANC. They will need their own identity. What do they stand for policy wise. Being a group of disgruntled ANC members is itself not enough," he added.
Matshiqi felt the timing was also important, and may explain why Lekota chose this week to write an open letter to an organisation he says he still is a member of. Are we about to see the announcement? The next few days should tell.
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